A front-page article in my local paper (that would be The Washington Post) Sunday exclaimed that a once-doubting “scientist” now believed in global warming. A Festivus miracle: he has seen the light.
I think one of the most useless phrases in 21st century politics (or English for that matter) is a “belief” in global warming. Can one “believe” in global warming? Has it now reached religious status? For some I suppose it has.
By definition I suppose we all believe certain things about the weather. I believe June is, on average, warmer than January. I believe snow is colder than rain. I believe Tuesday begins with the letter T and Wednesday begins with the letter W as long as we’re comparing one thing to the next.
What our friends mean, of course, when they say that one believes in global warming is that he or she promotes a public policy designed to lessen its effects. This is several steps removed from reading a thermometer.
I can look at a thermometer and measure temperatures from day to day, week to week, and decade to decade. Has the average temperature on Earth risen slightly in recent years? My friends who do these measurements tell me it has. Okay. Can I assume this trend will continue without abatement? Can I conclude with certainty that it has been the effect of man (aerosol cans and the like) that has caused this temperature rise? When temperatures rose in previous centuries was it the same effect? Did the last Ice Age end when cavemen began driving gas-guzzling cars?
Even if we were to draw a direct link from human activity to temperature change, would we assume that we could not reverse the change without curtailing our activities? Could no one figure out a way to satisfy both desires? The species who has brought us iPhones, iPads, and deep-fried Oreos? The only way for us to survive the next 50 years is to make our lives worse? Require by law that all of us make our lives worse? I can FaceTime with someone in Guam but I can’t buy the light bulb I want?
Let’s set aside “beliefs” of one thing or another when it comes to the weather. To use a much-maligned phrase, it is what it is. So let’s move to the real questions: 1.) Will continued temperature fluctuations adversely affect life on Earth? 2.) Has it been the activities of man that have caused or will cause this havoc? 3.) Will continued activities make our planet uninhabitable? 4.) Are we willing to reduce our lifestyles to reverse the trend? 5.) Are we willing to force our neighbors by government fiat to do likewise?
I believe these are much more difficult—and salient—questions.
